The Federal Reserve Deserves a Pat on the Back
Wall Street Journal Oped, December 27 2023. Paying interest on reserves and providing abundant reserves is an important advance in monetary policy.
Wall Street Journal Oped, December 27 2023. Paying interest on reserves and providing abundant reserves is an important advance in monetary policy.
What we’ve learned about inflation.
WSJ oped on what theories account for 2021-2022 inflation.
Or my title, “Victory Laps.” A WSJ oped August 2 2023. How fiscal theory makes sense of inflation, and other common stories do not.
Is 2% really the right inflation target for central banks?
Project Syndicate July 27 2023. No. Target the price level.
Project Syndicate July 27 2023. No, target the price level.
The government ditched inflation-protected bonds – companies should start issuing their own
With Jon Hartley. Globe and Mail Jan 31 2023
With Jon Hartley. Globe and Mail Jan 31 2023
The most important source of Canada’s inflation: The government borrowed more than $700-billion
Globe and Mail. Nov 14 2022 WIth Jon Hartley. Inflation and fiscal policy, Canada edition
Globe and Mail. Nov 14 2022 WIth Jon Hartley. Inflation and fiscal policy, Canada edition.
Nobody Knows How Interest Rates Affect Inflation
Wall Street Journal August 24 2022.
Wall Street Journal August 24 2022. Do higher interest rates raise or lower inflation? Can inflation go away if the Fed leaves interest rates alone? Surprisingly, we don’t really know.
The Federal Reserve Can’t Cure Inflation by Itself
Wall Street Journal July 28 2022. Ending inflation will require fiscal and monetary policy acting together.
Wall Street Journal July 28 2022. Inflation was sparked by fiscal policy. The Fed’s tool to offset that is blunt: The Fed can try to cause a little bit of recession, and hope via Phillips curve that recession lowers inflation. To end inflation will require fiscal and monetary policy acting together, to fix the US long-run fiscal problem.
The end of economic illusions
Project Syndicate April 14 2022. Inflation washes away many illusions. Blog post
Project Syndicate April 14 2022. Inflation washes away many illusions and wishful thoughts. Blog post version (ungated)
Why Isn’t the Fed Doing its Job?
Project Syndicate Jan 19 2022. Account for the grand bailout of 2020, and think a little bit about incentives, please. Blog post
Project Syndicate Jan 19 2022. Account for the grand bailout of 2020, and think a little bit about incentives, please. Blog post
The Ghost of Christmas Inflation
Project Syndicate December 23 2021. Blog Post. They dropped $5 trillion of debt from helicopters, what do you expect?
Project Syndicate December 23 2021. Blog Post. They dropped $5 trillion of debt from helicopters, what do you expect? Future inflation will depend on future fiscal and monetary policy, and whether people believe debt will be repaid.
Inflation in the shadow of debt
September 17 2021 An essay at Project Syndicate. Blog post.
September 17 2021 An essay at Project Syndicate. Blog post. Raising interest rates now will raise interest costs on the debt. Raising interest rates does not lower inflation without a concurrent fiscal tightening. The Fed also faces huge internal and external obstacles to raising interest rates. Yet faith that it will do so is all that anchors inflation. A shift to long-term debt financing would solve this problem.
Inflation: The Ingredients Are in the Pot, and the Fire Is On
National Review Online April 26, 2021. With Kevin A. Hassett. Anchoring means people believe the Fed will repeat 1982. Do they? Ungated blog post version
National Review Online April 26, 2021. With Kevin A. Hassett. A better discussion of whether inflation is coming, and the Fed repeating mistakes of the 1970s. Anchoring means people believe the Fed will repeat 1982. Do they? Ungated blog post version
Whither the Fed?
A talk given at the UCSD Economics roundtable June 11 2021. Inflation, Fed policy, fiscal pressures, and a quick tour of the Fed’s entrenchment of bailouts, and forays to climate change and social justice. Youtube video here, slides here, blog post with a bit more commentary here.
A talk given at the UCSD Economics roundtable June 11 2021. Inflation, Fed policy, fiscal pressures, and a quick tour of the Fed’s entrenchment of bailouts, and forays to climate change and social justice. Youtube video here, slides here, blog post with a bit more commentary here.
Does monetary policy threaten inflation?
Does monetary policy threaten inflation? National Review Online March 9 2021. (local pdf)
Does monetary policy threaten inflation? National Review Online March 9 2021. (local pdf)
Modern Monetary Theory Review
A review of Stephanie Kelton’s “The Deficit Myth.” Wall Street Journal, June 5 2020. Ungated full text on my blog, and a pdf of the print version here.
A review of Stephanie Kelton’s “The Deficit Myth.” Wall Street Journal, June 5 2020. Ungated full text on my blog, and a pdf of the print version here.
A debt crisis is on the horizon
Washington Post. Debt and deficits are a danger. Rising interest rates could spark big trouble quickly. Reforming entitlements is the answer, and sooner better than later. Written with Mike Boskin, John Cogan, George Shultz, and John Taylor. Local copy (pdf).
Washington Post. Debt and deficits are a danger. Rising interest rates could spark big trouble quickly. Reforming entitlements is the answer, and sooner better than later. Written with Mike Boskin, John Cogan, George Shultz, and John Taylor. Local copy (pdf).
Eight Heresies of Monetary Policy
1) The Fed has not been holding interest rates down. 2) QE did basically nothing. 3) The Fed is not stoking asset price bubbles. 4) The Fed has little control over real rates 5) The economy is stable 6) Interest rates only temporarily lower inflation. 7) The Phillips curve is dead 8) Long-term fiscal policy, not Fed mistakes, pose the greatest danger to inflation. Slides.
1) The Fed has not been holding interest rates down. 2) QE did basically nothing. 3) The Fed is not stoking asset price bubbles. 4) The Fed has little control over real rates 5) The economy is stable 6) Interest rates only temporarily lower inflation. 7) The Phillips curve is dead 8) Long-term fiscal policy, not Fed mistakes, pose the greatest danger to inflation. Slides.
The Fed Needn't rush to 'Normalize'
Wall Street Journal. Zero rates and zero inflation are pretty good. local pdf
Wall Street Journal. Zero rates and zero inflation are pretty good. local pdf