Inflation

Link here. The “Dean’s distinguished lecture” at Purdue University October 4 2024. An hour talk at an accessible level about inflation, where it comes from, and (of course) fiscal theory. Slides

Preventing Bailouts is Simple, but it isn’t Easy

Wall Street Journal, May 14 2024. With Amit Seru. We document the huge bailouts of 2020-2023, and how Dodd Frank regulation failed. The answer, of course, is equity-financed banking and narrow deposit taking. An oped summary of “Ending Bailouts, at Last.”

How Inflation Radically Changes Economic Ideas

IMF Finance and Development March 2024, also at Cato. Inflation teaches us that supply, not demand, constrains our economies, and government borrowing is limited.

Incompetent Elites Make Trump Look Appealing

Wall Street Journal Oped 2/3/2024. Why people support Trump. They want their country back.

The Federal Reserve Deserves a Pat on the Back

Wall Street Journal Oped, December 27 2023. Paying interest on reserves and providing abundant reserves is an important advance in monetary policy.

What we’ve learned about inflation.

Or my title, “Victory Laps.” A WSJ oped August 2 2023. How fiscal theory makes sense of inflation, and other common stories do not.

Is 2% really the right inflation target for central banks?

Project Syndicate July 27 2023. No, target the price level.

Bradley Prize intro and speech

I won the Bradley Prize in 2023. Here is the video and text of my speech at the Bradley website. Bradley also does a very nice introduction video of my childhood and early career. Here is a link to the intro and speech together. Bradley allows us to write down our thanks, in order to save time at the ceremony. My letter of thanks here, and yes thank you all.

Bradley Prize Interview

4/4/2023 Bradley Prize Intrerview (video) with Rick Graber, Bradley Foundation president.

Project Syndicate Interview

April 4 2023. Interview at Project Syndicate, mostly on fiscal theory.

Silicon Valley’s lesson: How to change banking to prevent crises and bailouts

The Hill, March 16 2023. If they couldn’t see SVB coming, the regulation project is hopeless.

Fair tax oped

“A consumption tax is the shock our system needs.” An oped on the “fair tax” at WSJ. Again, a simple consumption tax is the right answer. The “fair tax” is introduced in Congress. Sure it will lose, but that’s progress.

The government ditched inflation-protected bonds – companies should start issuing their own

With Jon Hartley. Globe and Mail Jan 31 2023

The most important source of Canada’s inflation: The government borrowed more than $700-billion

Globe and Mail. Nov 14 2022 WIth Jon Hartley. Inflation and fiscal policy, Canada edition.

The Liz Truss Tragedy

The Liz Truss Tragedy. Project Syndicate Oct 25 2022 with Jon Hartley. Truss’ growth-oriented policy really was the only answer for the UK, but the messaging and politics doomed the effort. Blog post version (undated).

What this year’s Nobel Economists can teach us about financial crises

National Review Online Oct 15 2022. The Nobel Prizes have gone for important foundational work. But we have learned since the papers were written that there is a better option to stop crises than endless bailouts. Blog post (no paywall)

Nobody Knows How Interest Rates Affect Inflation

Wall Street Journal August 24 2022. Do higher interest rates raise or lower inflation? Can inflation go away if the Fed leaves interest rates alone? Surprisingly, we don’t really know.

The Federal Reserve Can’t Cure Inflation by Itself

Wall Street Journal July 28 2022. Inflation was sparked by fiscal policy. The Fed’s tool to offset that is blunt: The Fed can try to cause a little bit of recession, and hope via Phillips curve that recession lowers inflation. To end inflation will require fiscal and monetary policy acting together, to fix the US long-run fiscal problem.

The end of economic illusions

Project Syndicate April 14 2022. Inflation washes away many illusions and wishful thoughts. Blog post version (ungated)

Time for supply

With Jon Hartley, Project Syndicate Mar 3 2022