The Value of Government Debt

Here I apply an asset pricing style price/dividend variance decomposition to the government debt valuation equation, to break the debt / GDP ratio into expected future surpluses and expected growth-adjusted discount rates. Variation in the value of debt / GDP is about half future surpluses and half discount rates. Growth variation does not show up. Zip file with programs and data.

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Rethinking Production Under Uncertainty

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Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Inflation at the Zero Bound.