“Shocks”
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 41, (December 1994) 295-364. A comprehensive look at which shocks matter and which don’t, including technology, money, oil and credit. None of the above accounts for much of economic fluctuations or inflation. Monetary policy shocks in particular account for very little output fluctuation and zero inflation variation. “Consumption” shocks, reflecting information agents see but we do not see do a pretty good job, but are harder to integrate into economic theory.