Rethinking Production Under Uncertainty

Manuscript 1993. Standard production technologies y(t) = shock(t) f(k) allow transformation across time but not across states of nature. Hence, the marginal rates of transformation needed to construct a true “production based asset pricing model” are undefined. This paper starts to think about how one might sensibly construct a technology that allows producers to transform goods across states of nature, and hence to construct a real “production-based” model, independent of preferences. Also did not result in a published paper, as I got stuck on an identification problem.

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Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices

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“Explaining the Variance of Price-Dividend Ratios”