Long term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory of the price level
Econometrica 69, 69-116 (2001). The fiscal theory with long term debt, and how to match the fiscal theory with business-cycle variation in debt and inflation. We typically write fiscal theory models with one-period debt, but the maturity structure turns out to matter a lot. For example, if the government pays off a perpetuity, then the price level is determined by the coupon coming due each year and that year’s taxes, with no present value of future taxes. I also resolve the empirical puzzle that inflation and deficits seem not to commove. That’s exactly what we expect of a government that’s trying to smooth inflation in the face of fiscal shocks.