John H. Cochrane

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A Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy with Partially-Repaid Long-Term Debt

Published June 2022. Review of Economic Dynamics 45:22-40. Fiscal theory of monetary policy means interest rate targets, sticky prices, and fiscal theory. This paper adds long term debt and the crucial novelty: a surplus process by which the government borrows now and promises future surpluses to repay the debt, yet fiscal policy is active. The model generates reasonable response functions to fiscal and monetary policy shocks, and solves a long-standing problem in fiscal theory models. This, the “fiscal roots of inflation” and “the value of debt” are companions. Zip file with programs

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