Production Based Asset Pricing
1988. NBER working paper 2776. This one uses two technologies and two states to infer contingent claims prices from production decisions, and matches the equity premium and term premium. It has nothing to do with the “Production-based” papers that came later in the Journal of Finance and JPE. I abandoned the project because it’s too easy – there are no probabilities in firm decisions with this standard technology, so it’s very easy to get contingent claims prices that differ from probabilities.
Recent work by Frederico Belo and Urbann Jermann may finally break through the identification problems and make the approaches of these last two papers work.